Quem colocou a massa num paraíso fiscal, safou-se.


« How does Europe factor into all this?
The European debtor countries—Spain, Ireland, Portugal and Greece—don't have independent monetary policies and can't print money. Therefore, they are in the early stages of decade-long debt and economic problems in which there will be constant tensions between them and their creditors. They got into this mess because the banks leveraged their balance sheets to lend money, and borrowers leveraged their balance sheets. Everybody had a great time. Then they reached their debt limits. When the private sector couldn't borrow more and the government wanted to provide fiscal stimulus to make up for the shortfall in spending, these governments borrowed a lot of money because they couldn't print money [because they are part of the euro zone]. These governments took on too much debt, so all sources of credit growth have largely shut down. As a result, they will have miserable economic growth and chronic debt problems, which will cause political and social instability. All countries can ultimately pay their debt if they impose taxes or cut spending. But there is only so much citizens can take, and then they throw those governments out and elect ones that promise not to cut spending or raise taxes. 

So the European debt crisis is far from over?
It is likely we are going to have another phase of the European debt crisis, in which events will get ahead of the policy makers. Conditions in Germany are very different from those in the other countries. It is getting very delicate, because Germany is experiencing inflation, and Germans don't want inflation, and they will get to a point where they want to tighten monetary policy, probably next month. As the year progresses, the tension between Germany and the debtor countries will intensify, and so this issue of debtor and creditor countries with different economic conditions being linked by the same monetary policy is going to come to a head. »

artigo completo aqui

2 comentários:

Vieira Calado disse...

O chato é que eu não compreendo
estrangeiro...

francisco disse...

Como é isso, atão um homem que foi "manager" nas terras de sua majestade, não domina a variante americana da língua de Dickens?